LatVasjuki boastful bluffing continues

Most of Latvian experts and politicians believe that the former transport supremo boastful pronouncements are due to his wish to create informative background for his 2010 parliamentary election campaign. Today his drive to create of the informative background continues - hyperactive Vice Major of Riga believes that Latvian economy is on the verge of collapse [deg zilās ugunīs]. As a solution to the present ills, and absolutely disregarding his own mistaken decisions as a government minister and his morally corrupt behavior [even the Cardinal of the catholic Church Mr Pujāts in his party congress had to remind him about it:)], the maverick plumber alias Lešinskis believes that everyone should rush outside Latvia and search for foreign investors. In his interview he does not specify which country exactly he plans to rush, but it is not needed, because even before he openly declared here and here that Latvia's EU and NATO membership had rid Latvia from its inferiority complex, and now Latvia should openly work with his Russian chums...

Latvian plumber ready to rule "LatVasjuki"?

Latvian former president and her supporters try to network support behind her nomination for the post of the European Council President next week. I honor Madam Freiberga and her team's efforts and would be happily surprised if she would manage to rally thus needed support behind her nomination for the post of the first president of the united Europe, even though I believe that more dynamic person should be needed for this newly created position.

While madam Freiberga continue her networking activities Latvian complacent and provincial politicians continue to play their games. Just in my last entry I used to mention about the zero sum game activities of the ill famous Latvian AAA team. While People's party (PP) "state capturers" are preparing for their congress in November 21, 2009 the junior member of the AAA team managed to bluff big style today.

There was annual congress of the Latvian Way Latvian First Party union (LWLFP), and also the Cardinal of the Roman Catholic Church Mr Pujāts gave his blessing for the bunch on liberoreligious bunch of the LWLFP . The Cardinal rather symbolically pleaded the conservative party folks to "abstain" from morally corrupting activities. In the meantime the former co-chairman of the party was crying foul about his correct strategy of saving Parex, and thus avoiding the Icelandic meltdown of state finances.

As if this would not be enough LETA and Apollo reports that the newly elected LWLFP party chairman and Vice Major of Riga in the party congress openly called the government of Valdis Dombrovskis to step down after the 2010 budget would be passed in the parliament. Bluffing big style is the specialty of the Vice major of Riga and rather ominously he announced that he does not want to to run for the parliament. Now, the politician with his initial surname Lešinskis, who took his wife's "europeanized" last name [Šlesere], joined other two members of the AAA team. Neither the head of the PP state capturers Šķēle nor the sponsor of the Greens and farmers Lembergs want to run for the parliament, because they deem themselves to be omnipotent PM candidates for the upcoming elections.

Latvian minigarch's spin doctors strategy is robust, but unimaginative, and now the youngest member of the AAA team wants to earn his brownies from authoritarian chums outside Latvia as well... . The political game the AAA team retinue plays is exhausting, and I still stick to the idea that this game should be left for the AAA team to immerse into. It is useless to compete with the AAA team whilst playing according to their rules, thus after the party of democratic choice would finish its consolidation it is essential to start to get our volunteers on ground and running on grass roots level as soon as possible. The October 2010 elections should turn out like "to be or not be elections" after all. Latvian civil society should avoid Latvian plumber (translation of Šlosers/Šlesers in Latvian slang) getting too snobbish in his imagined premiership of Latvasjuki, to paraphrase symbolic description of Chess capital from the Ilf & Petrov novel. Lets wait and see how the Latvian Independence Day celebrations would be held, and after them one would be able to notice whether it is mere bluffing or there is also some substance behind the verbal diarrhea of the incumbent Vice Major of Riga.

p.s. Here is access to my monthly TBT column, and the full access to it would be provided next Monday.

Latvian "minigarchs" preparing for what?

Last week the Union of Greens of Farmers (UGF) announced that their PM candidate in forthcoming elections would be criminally indicted Aivars Lembergs - first A of the AAA team. Today the second A of the AAA team - odious Andris Šķēle and his gangstas [state captor's to be politically correct:)] People's Party - should reveal the messiah program for leading Latvia out from present valley of sorrow. The third A of the AAA team - the Vice Major of Riga Ainārs Šlesers - already loves to bluff in various media channels that he is definitely going to be the next PM. Regardless of all the nonsense and bluff coming from all the AAA members one theme unites them - they have no idea about the win-win sets, and the only game for them in town is the zero sum game! According to their spin doctors, whom they have entrusted their fortunes, they want rather pathetically to run for the October 2010 elections as strong leaders and the PM candidates...

Let spin doctors spend their "minigarch" resources! The democratic alternative (New Era, Society for Alternative Politics, and Civic Union) should not participate in this half crazy spin doctor imaginative dream, but provide the democratic and Europeanized alternative to the ludicrous rat race:) The democratic party union during upcoming week should come out with the new name and the consolidation process within the democratic camp is gradually evolving.

P.S. To readers who read Latvian here is just the first result of our joint research project with Axel Reetz in yesterday's CitaDiena

Latvian internet media frenzy about the possible fall of the government?

The Latvian Minister of Finance Mr Einārs Repše in the KNL TV show yesterday explained reasons, why did he reprimand the head of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) Mr Jakāns to foster structural reforms and sack civil servants with ambiguous credentials. During the TV show and in his media pronouncements today Mr Jakāns acted as if the Minister of Finance would not have been his nominal boss, and the Minister of Finance decided to temporarily sideline him from his duties today.

There have been rumours about oligarchic parties (People's Party, Union of Greens and Farmers and Latvian First and Latvian Way Party Union) engineering possible fall of the government after the 2010 budget would be passed in the parliament. These rumors materialized since the odious former PM is back in Latvian politics. Also rather uniquely the parliament did not appoint the judge Māris Vīgants as the new member of the Supreme Court (its neither caucus of judges nor the president who appoints new judges, because the parliament reigns supreme in Latvia), and several legal experts and pundits argue that the major reason for such unexpected decision was the fact that Mr Vīgants was the judge who ruled in favour of incarcerating odious Latvian minigarch Aivars Lembergs indicted in several charges ranging from corruption cases (proper explanation here should be state capture) to exceeding the power of his public office already back in 2007. The State Prosecutor's office is slowly proceeding with this massive and politically sensitive court case, thus Mr Lembergs was allowed out from the prison the same year and according to the latest information he is under house arrest, that still did not prohibit him from visiting parliament yesterday.

With all these events evolving major Latvian media channels already argue about the possible fall of the government approaching. While using the LETA as primary source, Diena, Tvnet, Apollo and Delfi discuss behind the tent discussions in the Saeima, where the gravest sin of the present government is deemed to be the minister of finance crossing the red line and sidelining a chum of the People's Party folks. The NRA is the only paper that argues the opposite, arguing "that the Minister of Finance found the best possible time to sideline the compromised head of the IRS". Neither the Latvian Radio nor LTV 1 have proven such news, and I am wondering why majority of newspaper and internet media are thus eager to spread the news about an end of the government approaching - is it cheap media frenzy or a part of whipping up the crisis expectations?

Changes brewing in Latvia

Changes are brewing in Latvia that might have implications for the stability of the existing government. Already at the end of the workday the Minister of Finance Einārs Repše announced his suspicions about the head of Latvian Internal Revenue Service (IRS) being politically influenced, which is a local euphemism for an official fallen from grace and about to be sacked. Mr Repše has alarming reports from the Prosecutor General office as well as from the Corruption Prevention Bureau (KNAB). It was a public information for a while now about the financial police members who were convicted for illegal recordings of the journalist Iveta Jaunalksne telephone conversations continuing their work in the IRS. Also it was suspicious that Mr Vladimirs de Vaškevičs after being denied access from to the sensitive state secret information still became the deputy head of the IRS. The life of Mr de Vaškevičs was colourful enough, because he is owner of about hundreds of pairs of shoes (does it not remind you Ms Imelda Marcos:). Also he still continues to share the same house with his divorced wife Madam Vilkaste to save costs... . Never mind a fact, that Ms Vilkaste sold a real estate in the prime spot (Mežaparks) to the IRS for about EUR 5 million that she initially purchased for EUR 250 000, and KNAB is investigating her business practices. Also from my own sources I have heard rumours about Mr Vaškēvics (with a nickname Footballer/Futbols) being integral part of the drugs & arms shipments through the port of Riga.

In a vicarious way the announcements of the Minister of Finance proved long whirling rumours about the Latvian IRS serving the needs of the governing People's Party (PP). PP endorsed the present head of the IRS, and rumours about illegal trade on the Latvian Eastern border were politically hushed down with the help of the PP.

In the evening there was the weekly KNL show where also Minister of Finance and the head of the IRS were present. The dialogue between two officials was turning into a heated debate where the Minister of Finance very diplomatically explained why he cannot trust Mr Jakāns. While the moderator of the TV show asked whether the Minister should not consider simply sacking Mr Jakāns from his post, Mr Repše answered that such a decision is within a purview of the governing coalition.

At the end of the program the KNL moderator rhetorically asked that perhaps it would be a time finally to introduce the mandatory tax and property declaration system, thus the Latvian IRS could finally know what belongs to whom, and who is who in Latvia? Now the Latvian governing coalition has announced that the mandatory tax declaration is to be introduced from January 1, 2010. However, if the promise to introduce the mandatory tax and property declaration system is as baseless as the proposed real estate tax we perhaps would earlier see the disappearance of the Republic of Latvia. You may wonder why such an apocalyptic conclusion?

Because, even though, the governing coalition has reached a compromise on the 0,1% real estate tax after PP gangsters were convinced to support its introduction, the mechanism and administration of the new tax according to the Head of the IRS and senior civil servants is impossible earlier than somewhere at the end of next year....Is the possible sacking of the acting head of the IRS going to serve as the precursor of the fall of the existing government, because the former PM is eagerly waiting his retinue producing the momentum for his virtual coup d' entreprise?

Don't ask, don't tell

Google search engine gives most answers about the ''don't ask, don't tell'' expression in relation to sexual minorities in the US army, however, it is an old expression that allowed minority groups to survive throughout world history. I do remember hearing such expressions from my grandparents in the Soviet occupied Estonia, and now also among minority groups in Latvia. In this blog entry I do not want to delve thus much back into history as to describe the present Latvian government, because in its totality Latvian nomenclature actions perfectly reveal example of "don't ask, don't tell" governance system.

Almost everyone in Latvia would answer that major culprits of the present political and economic mess in Latvia - it is ill famous AAA team. And the same AAA team catering for their own gang of supporters have institutionalised hierarchical and corrupt governance system, that is hidden behind the facade of the Latvian constitutional democracy. However, the Latvian constitutional caucus did not take place in post - independence Latvia, because the former CPSU comrades and Diaspora members simply rolled over the 1922 Satversme. Such turn of events allowed gangsters from the AAA team not only to exert inordinate influence over decision making process, but to literally capture the state.

However, it is impossible to discuss it openly on governmental level because the Prosecutor General and Corruption Prevention bureau (KNAB) are powerless so far. To present you the latest example, I believe that almost every reasonable person in the Latvian public domain understand that the government dragging its feet while implementing structural reforms was mostly due to gross mistakes of Kalvitis (PP) and Godmanis (LWLFP) governments. The previous mistakes were never really evaluated, and today we are able to learn that nothing special minister is ready to be minister again (!). Today the major opposition to structural reforms is the whimsical PP and always changing their mind UGF "coalition partners" behavior.

Disappearance of business projects and giving up of power does not happen smoothly anywhere.

The AAA team gangsters are behaving strangely however. While they were endorsing Latvian accession to the EU and NATO it allowed them to earn handsome monies from this process. I believe that they somehow miscalculated the golden straitjacket that followed the EU membership. This probably explains why the AAA team does not legalize its activities, but fights for very survival of the Lettish crony capitalism! I also have a hunch that the AAA team are not even major play makers in their shady activities, because why the hell they would act thus irrationally and gangsta like? My hunch is that they do not really manage establishing business contacts in the West, thus staying intimately connected with authoritarian chums in undemocratically governed countries. It means that Latvian Western partners must play the "don't ask, don't tell" game because alternatively there would be an open confrontation. While the civil society members were trying to explain basic principles of democratic governance to the Latvian populace, the AAA team and their retinue with their deep pockets were rather successful in disseminating their conspiracy theories. Simply the political establishment never cared establishing europeanized democratic political and discussion culture. I do understand that my last two sentences were broad generalizations, but then how to explain flourishing of such notions as sorosīdi and liberasts in Latvian public opinion? I understand if Bedlam folks use such expressions, but those notions have entered into mainstream public discourse and also Latvian politicians ostensibly use them... . I have not heard such notions in Estonia and Lithuania for example, and would be glad if someone from Eesti or Lietuva would be able to provide me facts about such occurrences.

ECOFIN Commissioner Mr Joaquin Almunia or IMF are described in internet forums as evil forces in Latvian press, but media houses and their owners who portray IMF and EU as smth. foreign could better recall that it was the Latvian political establishment (PP, UGF, LWLFP and TBLNNK) that signed agreements with both the EU and IMF. Why the hell the EU representatives must explain that Latvian government was the one requesting the mega loan and understanding the need to implement structural reforms again and again, and that the EU did not force those reforms on its own member state? Why the hell the journalists do not understand thus simple facts and participate in this "don't ask, don't tell" game? Enough for this morning, and the president convenes the state security council today, and I leave my questions unanswered. Each and every one of you probably know the reasons for present rat hole Latvian state has painted itself in. However, the government must outsmart the corrupt AAA team players, and that game is heck of the complicated because AAA team gangsters are both in government, courts and civil service, and to pinpoint who is really who in the post Soviet Latvia is not an easy task after all.

P.S. Here is my weekly column for the Baltic Times

Shaky Latvian government coalition II (updated with A. Šķēle "comeback")

This morning the People's Party (PP) fuelled speculations about the fragility of the existing governing coalition. The Latvian Cabinet met today in emergency session and agreed on previously agreed budget cuts amounting LVL500 mlj. Now the Minister of Finance must present the 2010 budget for the special interest "hacking" in the Lettish Parliament. At the same time rumours have been circling for some time now about the PP, which still has the biggest representation in the parliament, engineering the fall of the government after the 2010 budget being passed in the Saeima. These rumours were partially supported by today's news announcing possible comeback (the fourth one!) of one of the most odious Latvian former prime ministers Andris Šķēle.

The news about the PP board begging Andris Šķēle to be their leader and prime minister candidate are bad enough for the government's stability. As if it would not be enough another "coalition partner" made laughingstock out of themselves today. The Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF), whose PM candidate for the forthcoming elections is no one else but the Maire of Ventspils, announced that UGF would vote against the projected school reform which would have made the Latvian schoolchildren to start the school from age six (it is seven now). What makes the laughingstock out of the UGF is the fact that the author of the reform is the Ministry of Education. The latter ministry is ruled by the UGF ministers since 2004 and also Tatjana Koķe represents the UGF. As if this ludicrous decision to undermine their own minister's work would not be enough also the Latvian Book Publishers Association announced that they would not manage printing books for the young pupils in due time. I do not understand something here, does the minister T. Koķe coordinate policy process with her party? If not, and this is exactly what the UGF announcement shows, why the head of the UDF faction in the parliament does not call for her resignation?

Updated

And while I finished this blog entry Apollo made it official, the former PM is back in politics! Some experts rightfully argued that his comeback is actually contradiction of terms, because he never actually left political string pulling. So Mr Šķēle is elected as the chairman of the PP board and it would make the Latvian political environment more than interesting the coming autumn.

Also the deputy head of the PP parliament faction Vents Armands Krauklis reiterated that PP does not support LVL500 million budget cuts, because ''they (PP) are not ready to sign hasty agreements Latvian government was forced to sign with the Western financial donors'', and the ECOFIN Commissioner is not the God Almighty''. I am watching the 100.pants TV show on LTV1 Channel and Mr Krauklis was presented the question, whether the PP agrees on LVL500 million budget cuts. Mr Krauklis answered, that they agree with the government policy now, but the PP believe that the level of budget cuts must be negotiated with the IMF because those budget cuts are detrimental to the IMF ıtself.

So far the PM Valdis Dombrovskis has not commented on the constantly changing PP position regarding the 2010 budget, just adding that the comeback of A. Skele might affect relations between political parties.

P.S. I could not resist using thus revelatory Gatis Šļūka cartoon again. The story behind the cartoon is the plan of the Military Police coordinated with Saeima officialdom to ensure security of the Lettish parliament building with the 25m security perimeter.

[Latvian MP giving command to another MP] Protesters approaching! Rise the bridge now!